8.30pm - The King is Dead, Long Live the King
As Sean Kyne was hauled upon the shoulders of his Fine Gael colleagues at the Count Centre in Salthill this evening, he unleashed a guttural roar of elation.
"The king is back!"
Okay, he didn't really say that - but there's no doubt he will be feeling like one tonight after such a spectacular comeback that few could have ever imagined.
The odds of reclaiming a seat you previously lost as a TD are statistically very low.
The odds of winning a by-election as a Government candidate are statistically even lower.
Then consider the fact a very deflated Kyne told Galway Bay FM live-on-air in November 2024 that he was retiring because he could not see a path back, and acknowledged it was time to make way for new blood.
The veteran politician of more than 20 years took a long, hard look at those odds and rolled the dice anyway, and the result is nothing short of a sensational victory for both himself and the Fine Gael Party.
This is a comeback story very, very few get to experience.
The incoming TD indicated to us us earlier that he's equal parts elated and humbled having been given a second chance by the electorate here today.
""I'll savor this victory and be humble, and all I can promise is try and be a better TD than before" - that, he actually did say.
With that, it's the end for the Galway Bay FM Live Blog, thanks for staying with me, and god willing we won't see another by-election in Galway West for at least 50 years, as is tradition - David Nevin
8pm - Sean Kyne gracious in victory; "All I can promise is to try and be a better TD than before"
Newly crowned and returning Fine Gael TD for Galway West, Sean Kyne, has demonstrated great humility after achieving the seemingly impossible here today.
He's overcome two successive failed bids for the Dáil, a public retirement, and the starkly unfavorable odds of being a Government candidate in a by-election, to be in the position he is this evening.
"It was hard to see a path back" he admits, referring to his second failure in the General Election of November 24.
Speaking to us just moments after being declared the winner of this by-election, he thanked everyone who voted for him and the team that supported him, before paying tribute to the political rival that took him to the cliff edge in this race.
"Putting yourself before the public, it's an ordeal, and I'd like to acknowledge campaign of Noel Thomas, it's not easy for two candidates in one parish to be fighting against one another," he said.
"I'm sure we'll continue to work together for the benefit of Moycullen and the region."
After reflecting briefly on the race, campaign and the abundance of experience he believes was crucial to reclaiming this seat, he was asked about settling back into the role of a TD for Galway West.
"I'll savor this victory and be humble, and all I can promise is try and be a better TD than before," he replied.
7.45PM - Sean Kyne elected in Galway West on 11th count
In the end, it wasn't even close; Sean Kyne ran home with a massive surge of more than 4 thousand transfers from Labour's Helen Ogbu, carrying him well past Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas.
By comparison, Thomas received less than 1,300.
More to follow....
7.25pm - Noel Thomas sees writing on wall but positive in defeat; "I'd be out knocking on doors again tomorrow if I could"
Noel Thomas has been speaking to us in the past few minutes as we wait for the announcement of the 11th and final count.
"I'm absolutely delighted" he told Sarah Slevin in the past few minutes, "this is the most positive campaign I've ever been involved in and the result we got, topping the poll and staying in the lead until the end - I'm delighted."
"It was a tough campaign, we had thought we might be losing traction at an earlier stage but we actually got more transfers than I thought myself, so delighted to be able to stay in it to the end."
"I had the most incredible team, Government parties threw the kitchen sink at their candidates, my team were just community people, and a huge thanks to them, I'll be forever indebted to them for their work."
Councillor Thomas was asked if he'll be running again if and when the chance arises.
"There's no question about that," he told Sarah Slevin with a laugh, "if I had the chance I'd be out knocking on doors again tomorrow morning."
"You never know what will happen," he continued, "the way it's looking to me at the moment, Fianna Fail are being completely consumed by Fine Gael, they're absolutely devouring them completely, I think Fianna Fail will be in serious trouble soon if they don't try and do something to separate themselves, you never know what might happen."
6.45pm - Minister Patrick O' Donovan hits the carpark catwalk in summer chic beneath scorching Salthill sun
6.40pm - Hidden heroes
Earlier today, I mentioned our on-air team at the count centre, but there's a few people I didn't mention who deserve some recognition as we await the 11th and final count in this by-election.
Engineer Donal O' Sullivan is the expertise and glue holding the on-air broadcast together at the Galway Lawn Tennis Club in Salthill.
Your broadcast team has been Head of News Bernadette Prendergast, Reporters Sarah Slevin and James Varley, and analyst John Cunningham.
David Nevin has been with you here on the blog since yesterday morning.
And back at base, aiding and abetting our round the clock coverage were Sean Carley, Darren Kelly, Marc Roberts, and Big Sam.
It's been a great team effort and hopefully you've enjoyed what we've provided.
And we're not done yet, of course - this has all led up to a crowning moment that is yet to happen.
6.15pm - The end of a long and winding road
It'll be a while before we know the outcome of this final count, with almost 13 thousand votes to be redistributed.
Some are saying it'll be as late as 7.30 or 8pm before the final verdict is delivered by the returning officer.
But it's really now just about making it official with analysts expecting Fine Gael's Sean Kyne to very comfortably win when all is said and done.
For the Moycullen Senator this is an incredible moment, having convincingly lost this seat in 2020 and then failing to reclaim it just as convincingly in 2024.
He told Galway Bay FM live on air in November 2024 that he was retiring after being eliminated from the race.
"I really don't want to put my family through another election campaign like this," he said at the time, "I've no plans, and to be honest about it I've been in politics for more than 20 years so I don't know, and that's kind of scary, but I've fought the good fight and it's time for other people now."
Look at him now.
For Moycullen man Noel Thomas, he's within touching distance of a seat in Dáil Eireann for the second time in less than two years, but once again transfers will be his undoing at the final hurdle.
And sometimes defeat on such a razor-thin margin can be the most heartbreaking of all.
But Thomas can take heart from another incredibly strong campaign and election performance, that could pave the way for a seat in the next General Election.
It's not over until it's over here in Galway West, but Independent Ireland have all but thrown in the towel.
5.40pm - Harris says imminent Kyne victory a renewed mandate to "get on with the job"
Speaking to media at the count centre in Salthill, Tanaiste and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris has being praising Sean Kyne's "incredible campaign and track record of delivering".
"I very much see it as a mandate to get on with the job, work even harder, to be even more restless in terms of delivering for people." Minister Harris told reporters.
"I want people to know on the many doorsteps I was on in Galway and Dublin, we heard the issues, and we're looking forward to getting back to work."
"We've had a superb candidate here in Sean Kyne....our party is at a moment of growth and renewal."
Minister Harris was then asked what he made of the performance of Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas, and if he thought they were punching up as a smaller party.
"The way I look at it is Government parties very rarely win by-elections, it's extraordinarily rare, the fact Sean has achieved what he has here... it speaks volumes to him and to the state of Fine Gael in Galway."
Meanwhile, despite almost inevitable and imminent victory, Sean Kyne himself was fairly stoic as the final count is now underway.
"I'm heartened by the votes I received, the first preference votes and transfers, and I'm hopeful we'll get a positive result but we still have some time to go."
"I'd just like to thank everyone who came out and gave me a number one vote, or their highest preference." he finished.
5.30pm - Helen Ogbu eliminated on tenth count; next count is the end-game
Labour's Helen Ogbu has been eliminated on the tenth count despite a massive transfer from the Soc Dem's Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich - easily the single best example of the 'Transfer Left' pact in action in this by-election.
Her 12, 960 votes will now be redistributed for the 11th and final count in this monumental by-election.
Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas will need a biblical miracle to win the seat at this point, but what a race it has been.
4.30pm - A long time ago, in a political galaxy far, far away.....
As we wait for the tenth count in Galway West - which probably won't come anytime soon - let's take a look back at the last time there was a by-election in this constituency.
It was more than 50 years ago and took place on Tuesday, March 4th, 1975 to fill the seat left vacant by Fianna Fail TD Johnny Geoghegan following his death.
It was a very different animal to the by-election unfolding in front of us today; the biggest difference being there were five candidates rather than seventeen.
Turnout on the day 50 years ago was a brisk 63 percent compared to the low, albeit predicted, turnout of 44 percent on Friday just gone.
Johnny's daughter Máire Geoghegan-Quinn ultimately took the seat on the 4th count and went on to forge a political legacy even bigger than that of her father.
Of particular interest is the fact that Michael D. Higgins stood in this election for Labour, but finished in third behind Fine Gael's John Mannion.
Ironically, the original Star Wars movie hadn't even been released at the time of the 1975 by-election - that landed more than two years later in 1977.
Below: 1975 Galway West by-election candidates Michael D. Higgins (Labour) and Renée Prendergast (Official Sinn Fein)
4.15pm - Fine Gael leader Simon Harris has arrived in Salthill ahead of Sean Kyne's predicted victory
3.50pm - Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich eliminated on ninth count
The Social Democrat's Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich has been eliminated on the ninth count; the redistribution of her 6,158 votes will form the basis of the tenth count.
Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas retains a narrow lead over Fine Gael's Sean Kyne but this is now realistically Kyne's seat to lose after a massive infusion of votes from Fianna Fail's Cillian Keane.
It's hard to see Noel Thomas being the biggest beneficiary from transfers from two left candidates; at this point it would take a transfer miracle for him to stay ahead at the final reckoning.
3.24pm - Local Independent Ireland MEP Ciaran Mullooly throws in the towel on X; "We will be back"
3.15pm - Huge cheer and applause for Helen Ogbu as she makes her way into the count centre ahead of the ninth count
What an election it's been for Labour's Helen Ogbu, who's now positioned to finish third in this race.
From the first tallies to this point, she's been the dominant left wing candidate and never faltered.
There's still talk that the city councillor could end up in second place, depending on how transfers shake out, though it seems unlikely.
This is what we talked about earlier though - a major win even in the absence of victory, Councillor Ogbu and her party will consider this an enormous success that's laid invaluable road for future elections.
3.10pm - Labour's Helen Ogbu arrives at count centre and is greeted by II TD Michael Fitzmaurice
2.55pm - The proverbial champagne is already flowing
A thunderous applause greeted Sean Kyne as he entered the count centre in the past few minutes; Fine Gael consider his reclamation of the seat lost in 2020 a done deal.
And what a coup that would be after everything the veteran politician from Moycullen has endured in recent years - from two failed attempts for that seat that fell well short, to a public resignation announcement to Galway Bay FM in November 2024.
And while some might caution temperance so close to the end here in Galway West, in truth this is how most predicted it would play out as late-stage transfers came into play.
But it is not over yet, with a ninth count expected shortly - there's always an outside chance of an upset, however distant.
2.45pm - The eagle has landed
2.40pm - A Fine Gael delegation here at the count centre awaiting the arrival of Sean Kyne ahead of the ninth count
2pm - II TD Michael Fitzmaurice is on hand to support Noel Thomas as the grueling transfers battle grinds on
1.40pm - Fianna Fail's Cillian Keane eliminated on eighth count
Fianna Fail's Cillian Keane has been eliminated on the eighth count and his 5,154 votes will now be redistributed for the ninth count.
Although Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas has a commanding lead for now, Fine Gael's Sean Kyne will be more confident that from this point on, transfers will cascade heavily in this direction.
Still, there are no certainties and we've seen some unexpected transfers thus far; both men will feel their collars start to tighten around now as it looks like it could be an even closer contest than was earlier thought.
All to play for here in Galway West yet.
1.35pm - Cillian Keane arrives ahead of inevitable elimination
Fianna Fail's Cillian Keane has arrived back at the count centre, moments ahead of his expected elimination from the race.
He's in good form, sharing a laugh as we await the results of the eighth count, the distribution of Mike Cubbard's votes.
Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas and Labour's Helen Ogbu are expected to be the big winners in this round - Fine Gael's Sean Kyne will have to wait a little longer for the cascade effect to kick in on his behalf.
All in all, despite Fianna Fail's overall misfortune in this by-election, it hasn't been a terrible performance for young Oranmore man Cillian Keane all things considered.
His seat at Galway County Council is barely warm, and this was a good opportunity for him to build a base, or as Micheal Martin put it yesterday, blood himself.
1.20pm - Holly Cairns: Galway West performance "proud day for the party"
Building on what we spoke about below, Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns has told media at the count centre that it's a "very proud day" for the Social Democrats.
"It's hard to describe how I'm feeling," she said, "I'm not normally emotional but it's been such a great election for the party and feels monumental, Mide's campaign in Galway was such a massive success".
"It was her first political outing in Galway and it almost doubled our vote share here....it's testament to her campaign and team, it's just an incredible outing".
"For the party as a whole, taking the seat in Dublin as well, it's representative of people looking for an alternative, and looking for us for that, and we're really well positioned in Galway West going forward."
"We're all very proud of Mide," Deputy Cairns finished, before she was asked if she forecast the party taking a seat in the next General Election in Galway West.
"I absolutely think we can." she replied after a very brief pause.
It looks right now like Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich will likely finish in fourth place after outlasting Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein, and the veteran Mayor of Galway - not a bad showing at all for a young, first time candidate.
12.45pm - Holly Cairns in fine form at Count Centre - and has every reason to be
Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns is in great form at the count centre in Salthill this afternoon and has every reason given her party's performance in both by-elections.
While Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich will not win a seat in Galway West, it's been a solid performance from the first time candidate, who's outlasted many veterans and could yet still have a little more staying power.
Combined with the Social Democrats show-stopping performance in Dublin Central, the solid platform building accomplished by Connemara native Nic Fhionnlaoich could be the basis from which future elections are fought and won.
As we said earlier, under the right circumstances, some losses can be construed as wins and once the dust has settled on this by-election there's no doubt both Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich and the Social Democrats party will be of that mindset.
12.10pm - Mayor of Galway Mike Cubbard eliminated on seventh Count
Mayor of Galway, Councillor Mike Cubbard, has been eliminated on the seventh count, and his 4,737 votes will now be redistributed for the eight count.
While it wasn't a terrible performance by any metric, it will no doubt be somewhat of a disappointment for the Westside native who has now contested several general elections but struggled to gain traction outside the city borders.
But there are positive takeaways for the local poll topper - his performance here for a single seat is much improved compared to the 2024 GE, so he can chalk this one up to a reaffirmation that his reach is certainly expanding.
Fianna Fail's Cillian Keane avoided the executioner here by a mouses whisker - but for how long is another question as almost 5 thousand votes now have to be redistributed.
Fine Gael's Sean Kyne will be starting to sweat as Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas benefits from a fair portion of unexpected transfers so far - will this trend continue or will the 'Transfer Left' pact start to shine through as we edge closer to the final reckoning.
Interestingly, more than 700 of the votes from Sinn Fein's Mark Lohan were deemed non-transferable - that's almost half of the entire total so far in this race.
Many of these could possibly be largely 'plumper' votes - in effect, ballots that cast a vote for the Sinn Fein candidate and nobody else.
11.52am - Social Democrats Leader Holly Cairns embraces Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich outside count centre
11.50am - Galway West FF TD John Connolly looking pensive in Salthill as the seventh count is now underway
11.30am - The FM Broadcast team at the Count Centre in Salthill
Here's the GBFM team delivering around the clock coverage on-air since 9am yesterday.
From left to right: Reporter James Varley, Analyst John Cunningham, Head of News Bernadette Prendergast, Reporter Sarah Slevin.
Not pictured, shackled to this blog: Reporter David Nevin.
11.10am - Mark Lohan Eliminated on sixth count; Massive Tom Welby transfer to Noel Thomas
Sinn Fein's Mark Lohan has been eliminated on the sixth count and the redistribution of his 3,764 votes will be the basis of the seventh count.
Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas has surged ahead for now thanks to a massive influx of 1,171 transfers from Tom Welby, but Fine Gael's Sean Kyne wasn't far behind having benefited from 840 transfers.
10.50am - Noel Thomas is back in the big house
10.30am - The political guillotine demands its next victim
Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich is at the count centre this morning as the sixth count is underway, and she could find herself on the chopping block sooner rather than later depending on how transfers shake out.
At this point though, the Soc Dem's candidate has had a reasonably strong performance for a first-time venture, even if she didn't live up to the heavy and perhaps unrealistic expectations a title like "Dark Horse" commands.
Still, she's built herself a solid platform for future engagement, remains in the race for now, and could stave off the political guillotine for another while yet.
After all, there's only one seat to be had here in Galway West and for many it's a case of how they lose rather then winning - and Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich has plenty to be happy about.
By way of comparison, among those still in this race for now, there's little for Sinn Fein to be celebrating about former Councillor Mark Lohan's performance.
City Council veteran and Mayor of Galway Mike Cubbard is unlikely to be entirely thrilled either given he's had several cracks of the whip at this stage and continues to command a powerful city vote that falters at county borders.
Either man could also be next on the returning officers hit-list when they next take to the podium at the Galway Lawn Tennis Club.
Former Progressive Democrat and long-time Independent Councillor Tom Welby's redistribution is a fascinating one - he's a close neighbour of frontrunners Sean Kyne and Noel Thomas.
Still a few twists and turns to come here as candidates are picked off at a slow but steady pace.
10am - Tom Welby eliminated on fifth count
Independent Tom Welby has now been eliminated, and his 3,351 votes will be redistributed to form the basis of the sixth count.
9.30AM - Fifth count now underway as real transfer battle begins
The fifth count is underway at the count centre in Salthill this morning, and that's the distribution of the votes from Independent Sheila Garrity and Aontu's Orla Nugent.
Their double elimination late in the evening yesterday marked the end of the first day - with a far scrappier day now lying ahead as remaining candidates will be slowly and methodically be eliminated one by one.
Transfers will be crucial and when you balance what candidates remain in the race versus the front runners now engaged in a transfer battle, many already feel Sean Kyne's reclamation of his Fine Gael seat lost in 2020 is a foregone conclusion.
But Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas is still in this race; there will be a lot of movement in the top candidates as the transfers come through; and with that there is always the possibility of a few surprises.
It will be interesting to see to what extent the much-vaunted 'Transfer Left' pact influenced preferences in this by-election - for many voters such a pact is, and has always been, already an unspoken rule but this gentle push could end up making all the difference.
10.10pm - That's a wrap for tonight
That's it from me David Nevin for this evening - we'll be back again tomorrow morning as counting resumes at 9am for the fifth count, which involves the distribution of votes from the elimination of Sheila Garrity and Orla Nugent.
It's been a busy day and the best - or worst, depending on your political leanings - is yet to come tomorrow.
It looks like Fine Gael's Sean Kyne is now in a good position, widely acknowledged as being more transfer friendly than Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas, who currently retains a lead of several hundred votes - for now.
It would be an incredible win for Kyne, not only bucking the trend of Government losing by-elections, but claiming back a seat he lost in 2020 and furthermore fell well short of reclaiming in 2024.
It's been a tough day for Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein, with both parties taking a battering in Galway West and Dublin Central, and respective party leaders Micheal Martin and Mary Lou McDonald already fending off leadership questions.
Finally, there was a few errors with the fourth count figures below but these are now fixed - we're only human after all!
Thanks for staying with us, and join me again tomorrow for more coverage to the bitter end.
10pm - Counting in Galway West ends for the night as 'Transfer Left' kicks into action
Whether by nature or deliberate design, we're seeing some evidence now of the much talked about 'Transfer Left' pact in this by-election.
The Green Party's Niall Murphy's parting gift was a significant distribution of votes to left-wing candidates still in the race, bloodied but not out just yet.
From 1,252 votes, almost 400 went to Labour's Helen Ogbu, and almost 270 more to the Social Democrat's Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich.
Fine Gael's Sean Kyne received a very healthy infusion as well of 214 votes - but to no-one's great surprise, Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas claimed just 20 transfers.
Even Independent Mike Cubbard gained 71 transfers, despite taking aim at Niall Murphy and the Green Party during the Galway Bay FM by-election debate on Monday.
Still a very close race in Galway West, but Kyne will likely prove to be more transfer friendly as we head towards the end-game on day two.
9.30pm Aontu's Orla Nugent and Independent Sheila Garrity eliminated on fourth count
It's a double elimination with Sheila Garrity Independent and Aontu's Orla Nugent both eliminated on the fourth count.
That leaves over 3 thousand votes to be distributed for the fifth count - but the returning officer has announced that's a job for tomorrow.
It'll be an interesting count, with both candidates on very different ends of the political spectrum.
8.45pm Green Party's Niall Murphy eliminated on third count
1,252 votes from the elimination of the Green Party's Niall Murphy will now be distributed for the basis of the fourth count.
We expect a fourth and fifth count to conclude tonight before the returning officer calls a halt and tells people to come back tomorrow.
8.30pm Sheila Garrity makes political and fashion statement with Palestine branded soccer jersey
It's been a tough day for Independent Sheila Garrity, who's currently struggling to remain relevant on just over 1,500 votes.
She's fared far better than many other candidates, but the Canadian educator might have dared hope for more given her close association with former seat-holder and now President Catherine Connolly through various campaigns over the last 20 odd years.
Still, she can walk away knowing she's cut her teeth on this by-election and it could greatly stand to her should she throw herself back into the political arena at a local level in the future.
Things have somewhat slowed down here now and there's a sense of some of the energy having left the room.
We're in it now for a long haul, with the towel likely to be thrown in here around midnight to be picked up again tomorrow.
You would imagine Sean Kyne and Noel Thomas might sleep like babies in the truest sense of the phrase - trashing around restlessly all night pondering their fate.
We're now waiting for the results of the third count and the redistribution of AJ Cahill's votes.
7.40pm Fianna Fail reinforcements arrive in Salthill in the form of a casually dressed Albert Dolan
While reporting on the impending birth of a royal baby, BBC journalist Simon McCoy once famously said "Plenty more to come from here, none of it news, but that won't stop us."
In that spirit, here's a photo of Fianna Fail TD Albert Dolan, usually renowned for his crisp suits, after arriving in Salthill to lend moral support to down-but-not-yet-out party candidate Cillian Keane.
"Surprising that he missed the Taoiseach earlier" somebody remarked - "Probably didn't want to be caught by the boss out of his suit" someone replied with a laugh.
7.30pm AJ Cahill eliminated on second count
Irish People Party leader AJ Cahill has been eliminated on the second count and his votes will now be redistributed.
On one level, he will no doubt be pleased with his performance today, bowing out of the race with almost 950 votes in what was a markedly better performance than the 2024 General Election.
We saw five candidates swept from the board on the first count - but from here on in, it'll be single eliminations.
6.30pm First count sees five stragglers eliminated
The first count has finally been announced and there's been decent movement with five candidates eliminated from the bottom of the pack.
That whittles our 17 candidate race down to 12 for the next count as more than 800 votes are now redistributed.
Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas leads the race at 10,007, with Fine Gael's Sean Kyne closely behind at 9,647.
6pm Taoiseach says Cillian Keane did well and has established a platform for growth
Councillor Cillian Keane has done well in this by-election and established a strong platform for future growth in Galway, according to the Taoiseach.
Micheal Martin arrived at the count centre in Salthill to reflect on a 9 percent first preference vote for the young Councillor ahead of the first official count.
"That's how I see it, genuinely," he told media in the past few minutes, "I've been through a lot of by-elections and we've used some in the past to blood people, we've used them as platforms for them to grow and develop" he said.
Micheal Martin was also asked about the strong performance of former party member Noel Thomas' but remained somewhat coy, instead reflecting on the broader picture.
"Geography matters here, Noel Thomas has been a councillor for a considerable amount of time and he ran very close in the last General Election and that tends to help you in a follow up by-election".
The Taoiseach was also asked about the potential for Fianna Fail votes to transfer from Cillian Keane to Thomas.
"We'll see," he said initially, before quickly adding "I think our sense is geography will play a part here, rather than second guess the decisions in the box we'll let the counters determine that for us."
5.30pm Taoiseach swarmed by media after touching down in Salthill
As predicted, Taoiseach Micheal Martin facing an immediate grilling after arriving a few moments ago...
More to follow.
5.20pm Taoiseach due at Salthill Count Centre in next few minutes
Micheal Martin could be facing further unrest in Fianna Fail after what's roundly considered a disastrous day for the party.
Councillor Cillian Keane captured 9 percent of first preference votes in Galway West and is nowhere near contention for a seat.
But further east, and Fianna Fáil is on course for its worst ever by-election result with John Stephens tallying around 4.2 per cent in Dublin Central.
Taoiseach Michael Martin will likely face some tough questions on today's results and his steering of the party when he arrives at the Galway Lawn Tennis Club in the coming moments.
4.20pm Helen Ogbu arrives at Count Centre; "We've a long way to go and it's never over until it's over"
Still no count of a first count here in Salthill, with indications that it now could be closer to 5.30pm before the returning officer makes the first official announcement.
Why the boat's been pushed out so far is unclear, though the returning officer earlier invited party representatives to examine some votes.
Maybe a case of measure twice, cut once.
Councillor Helen Ogbu arrived a short time ago to join Labour Party leader Ivana Bacik at the count centre and speaking to media, said she's still feeling confident and there's still a "long way to go".
Ivana Bacik acknowledged this will be a real test of the vote left pact, but added they're already immensely proud of Helen's performance and the campaign she has run.
The nerves must surely be getting to front runners Sean Kyne and Noel Thomas at this point, whose minds will be racing at the possibilities of the coming hours.
Now that the adrenaline from the tallies has worn off, both face an excruciating wait to see where will transfers will go.
The PR-STV system means the elimination of candidates in a constituency as big as Galway West can be a slow and painful process.
And of course, while Helen Ogbu is very much taking a "glass half full" approach to the race, everyone will be mindful of what she said earlier - it's never over, until it's over.
3.30pm - First official count due around 4pm
The first official count is due around the next half hour.
Tallies are usually pretty accurate, so there shouldn't be any major shifts when the returning officer takes to the stage for the first time.
Of more interest will be a likely announcement that several candidates languishing at the bottom of the table will be eliminated simultaneously.
That'll kick start a transfers game which will be unpredictable at best.
Independents Neill Baireád, Patrick Feeney, John O' Leary and Michael Ryan are facing the political guillotine with little chance of reprieve.
Many more will follow them in the hours to come though.
Here's the current state of play as we wait for the first count.
2.30pm - Cillian Keane lands at count centre with Minister in tow
Fianna Fail's Cillian Keane has landed in the count centre, with Cabinet Minister Dara Calleary in tow.
It hasn't been a great election for the Oranmore native at 9 percent of first preference votes, but does that say more about the party or the candidate?
Opinions will differ on that one.
Keane is still a young man who is relatively fresh in his seat at Galway County Council, which was hard-won in June 2024 by the skin of his teeth after a recount.
His Government colleague Sean Kyne by comparison is a far more seasoned political animal - he's been a Fine Gael Councillor, TD, Minister, and Government Chief Whip, currently serving as a Senator in the Oireachtas.
If things are bad for Fianna Fail in Galway West though, in Dublin Central they're positively apocalyptic where John Stephens has captured just 4 percent of the vote.
Perhaps Fianna Fail leader Michael Martin will face another barrage of scrutiny when all is said and done with this by-election.
1.50pm - Tallies now completed
The tallies are now completed, with a first count expected within the next two hours.
We could see several candidates who secured a relative handful of votes eliminated at that point.
They would be Independent's Neill Bairead, Patrick Feeney, John O' Leary and Michael Ryan.
There will be very minor discrepancies between the final tallies and the first count, but the broad picture will remain unchanged.
The current state of play is Fine Gael's Sean Kyne and Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas are virtually neck and neck in what many are already calling an unassailable lead for the front-runners.
The showdown in Connemara reflects a fierce contest in 2024 between the two men; though of course on that occasion while Thomas ultimately had more staying power, both were losers in the end.
That very likely won't be the case today.
Labour's Helen Ogbu remains firmly in third by a good distance at 5,100, but it's a gap of four thousand behind the joint-leaders that would surely take a transfer miracle to remedy.
For now though, as we await the first official count, it's Thomas in pole position by a few hundred votes over Kyne.
1.20pm - Mary Lou McDonald arrives at Count Centre; "It's not our day"
Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald and Finance Spokesperson Pearse Doherty have arrived in Salthill with candidate Mark Lohan.
"It's not our day" the Sinn Fein leader admitted to gathered media.
That's an understatement - Sinn Fein has only failed to poll well, but experienced a devastating collapse in its expected vote.
While the TG4 Ipsos Poll had put the former city councillor at 7 percent, Sinn Fein's own internal polls are understood to have placed him much higher.
In reality, the outcome has been even more crushing, with Lohan just at 6 percent with over 85 percent of boxes now tallied.
Fine Gael's Sean Kyne and Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas remain clear front-runners at 20 percent each.
But Labour's Helen Ogbu at 11 percent may still cling to a glimmer of hope that the vote left pact might enable her to hang in the race.
But for now, with tallies almost completed, it's looking more like it's two horse race and a grueling transfers battle between Kyne and Thomas.
Tallies will be finished soon - and we'll then be able to give you a better look and insight into all 17 candidates.
1pm - Three quarters of boxes now tallied
A steady pattern has now emerged as almost three quarters of boxes are now tallied.
That breaks down into two thirds of city boxes accounted for, and almost 80 percent in the county.
So from now until the tallies are completed, there's unlikely to be any shocks or reversal of fortunes thus far.
Fine Gael's Sean Kyne and Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas remain contrasting political peas in a single seater pod at 20 percent first preference votes each.
Labour's Helen Ogbu comfortably retains third place but is in the cold at 12 percent, having slowed down considerably once county boxes started rolling in.
It's not looking good for Fianna Fail's Cillian Keane at 9 percent; Mide Nic Fionnlaoich of the Social Democrats at 7 percent, and Sinn Fein's Mark Lohan at 6 percent.
For everyone else, it's the end of the road, and a case of an imminent "when" rather than "if" - we'll have more on all 17 candidates once the dust has settled on the final tally.
Speculation will of course then turn to where transfers might go as candidates are eliminated from the bottom - something we'll talk about a little later as well.
As we've been stressing, tallies are not an official count, but are broadly accurate enough to form a reliable picture.
But early indications are that the "transfer left" pact among many parties is also holding true to a significant degree - Helen Ogbu will be hoping this will enable her to remain competitive in what's starting to look more and more like a two-horse race.
Pictured above: People Before Profit's Demman Rooke chats at the Social Democrats table, reflecting on less than 400 first preference votes - some way behind Irish People Party candidate AJ Cahill and Aontu's Orla Nugent at the lower ends of the table.
12.15pm - Clash of the Connemara Titans
Labour leader Ivana Bacik now at the count centre, conversing with Fine Gael's Sean Kyne, who's faring well so far in his quest to reclaim a seat lost in the 2020 GE.
Despite a strong early showing from city boxes, Labour's Helen Ogbu is making much less headway in the county, though she remains the opposition frontrunner after Noel Thomas by a wide margin at 12 percent.
That will be the source of some embarrassment for Sinn Fein, which is facing a total collapse in its vote for Mark Lohan, currently standing at 6 percent.
But, there's still everything to play for at the top, with Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas and Sean Kyne trading blows for first preference domination.
For now, it's former Fianna Fail member Thomas leading the dance, at 21 percent/6 thousand votes, and Kyne at 20 percent/5,700 votes.
We heard plenty in the run up to this election about "dark horses" but despite a strong early showing, those pipped to live up to that moniker have failed to do so.
There's still plenty of boxes to be opened, but with two thirds of county boxes tallied, and well over half of city boxes, seismic changes seem unlikely at this point.
And it will, as predicted, become a slog of a transfers game in what's shaping up to be a two horse race - that's something we'll talk about a little later once tallies are completed.
11.40am - Some voting shifts as tallies reach 50 percent mark
With roughly half of the boxes now counted and tallied in both the city and county, that equilibrium has given us a more clear picture of voting trends.
Fine Gael's Sean Kyne and Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas remain the clear frontrunners, remaining virtually neck and neck and trading blows every time a new box is tallied.
Kyne is at 20 percent or 4585 first preference votes; Thomas has, for now, pulled ahead at 21 percent or almost 4,800 votes.
Labour's Helen Ogbu continues to have a decent showing, though her pace has slowed dramatically as more and more county boxes are added to the mix and she now stands at 11 percent.
Independent Mike Cubbard has seen his early momentum stopped in its tracks, and the Mayor of Galway now finds himself trailing at 7 percent.
It continues to be a crushing turnout for the other major parties - Fianna Fail's Cillian Keane (8 percent), Sinn Fein's Mark Lohan (7 percent), and Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich of the Social Democrats (7 percent).
Most other candidates have failed to make much headway of note, though Independent Tom Welby continues to have a reasonable performance at 7 percent.
Independent Sheila Garrity's close association with previous seat holder and now President Catherine Connolly has amounted to nothing in the end, commanding just 3 percent of the vote.
Aontu's Orla Nugent is on 2 percent; AJ Cahill of the Irish People Party is the same; and People Before Profit's Denman Rooke is at just 1 percent.
We'll have more on all 17 candidates as we get closer to the conclusion of tallies.
For now, with half of boxes accounted for, we're starting to get a much better picture of what the first official count might look like, and where significant transfers will come from.
11.10am - Frontrunners Kyne and Thomas mingle at the count centre as tallies continue
Earlier, I described Fine Gael's Sean Kyne and Independent Irelands Noel Thomas as political rivals and parochial neighbours.
While there might be a significant political divide between them, the current front-runners are physically just yards apart at the count centre.
Noel Thomas smiles and laughter here - Sean Kyne somewhat more reserved - but surely both men are equally feeling the pressure of this monumental moment.
11am - Kyne and Thomas neck and neck as a third of boxes tallied
Just over a third of boxes have now been opened and tallied, so while we remain a long way from a completed jigsaw there's plenty to be gleamed and to speculate on.
So far, the composition is almost 50 percent city boxes, and just 25 percent of county boxes.
Fine Gael's Sean Kyne remains in front at 19 percent of first preference votes captured, which equates to more than 3 thousand votes.
Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas is close behind at 18 percent, or more than 2,800 votes.
Most Oughterard boxes are now tallied, and as expected Noel Thomas and Tom Welby have performed strongly there.
Boxes are yet to be cracked open in Sean Kyne's heartland of Moycullen, though.
Next in the rankings are Labour's Helen Ogbu at 13 percent/2,100, and Independent Mike Cubbard at 9 percent/1,350.
They've performed well in the city thus far, but less so in the county.
It's inevitably a disappointing day so far for many - but for some, the performance thus far will be falling well below even pessimistic predictions.
Fianna Fail's Cillian Keane continues to struggle on 7 percent, or just over a thousand votes.
Sinn Fein's Mark Lohan is faring no better, with similar numbers, as is the Soc Dem's Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich.
With the exception of Independent Tom Welby, who's at 7 percent, most of the remaining candidates are failing to make much headway at all.
People Before Profit's Denman Rooke (1 percent/225) will hardly be thrilled at being significantly outperformed by AJ Cahill of the Irish People Party (2 percent/385) so far.
We'll have more on all 17 candidates as the tallies near a conclusion.
But for now, as always, there's plenty more boxes to be opened before we have a reliable picture of what the first count might look like.
And after that, it will be a slow, and for some painful, transfers game.
10.40am - Kyne remains in front.....for now
As tallying continues, Fine Gael veteran Sean Kyne remains in front, but there's still plenty of unknown road ahead.
It's predominantly city boxes opened so far, with a smattering of Connemara in the mix, and Sean Kyne is sitting on 19 percent first preference votes.
Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas is on 16 percent, with Labour's Helen Ogbu close on his heels at 14 percent.
Independent Mike Cubbard is on 10 percent; while Soc Dem's Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich and Sinn Fein's Mark Lohan are both on 7 percent.
Independent Tom Welby has enjoyed a slight surge, now standing at 8 percent.
Fianna Fail's Cillian Keane is struggling to make headway in comparison to Government counterpart Sean Kyne, at this point claiming just 7 percent of first preference votes.
There are of course many other candidates in this race, commanding between 0 and 6 percent of votes.
It can't be over-stated - these are unofficial tallies, and at this point more importantly, it's a very incomplete picture.
There's still many city boxes to be opened, and almost all of the boxes in the county still to go.
10am - Not so quiet on the Western Front
A decent crowd has already gathered at the count centre at the Galway Lawn Tennis Club as counting is well underway.
Galway West is famed for it's glacial nature at the best of times, and 17 candidates in the mix is very much a compounding factor.
But the pace this morning is brisk, and relatively low turnout yesterday will make things that little bit faster as well.
Early tallies at this point are not much of an indication as to who will ultimately claim the seat - but there's plenty of useful information to be gained all the same.
Tallied so far are 40% of boxes in Galway City Centre and Galway City West, and just over 20% of boxes in Galway City East.
Independent Mike Cubbard and Labour's Helen Ogbu are performing strongly as you would expect from these boxes -at 13 and 16 percent first preferences respectively.
But so too are political rivals and parochial neighbours Sean Kyne and Noel Thomas.
Fine Gael stalwart Kyne is surging ahead at this point though with 17 percent of the vote, with Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas commanding a respectable 13 percent.
Sinn Fein's Mark Lohan is lagging behind at 9 percent, as is the Soc Dem's Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich at 7 percent.
But there's still plenty more boxes to be opened from the city - let alone those from the county - before we'll start to get a handle on what the first count might look like.
9.30am - It's D-Day - or should that be G-Day?
Welcome to Galway Bay FM's live blog for the Galway West by-election with David Nevin, your one-stop-shop for the latest updates on the first by-election the county has seen in 50 years.
On that occasion, there were just five candidates though - a somewhat different political landscape to today, with a whopping 17 candidates in the mix to claim the political throne vacated by now President Catherine Connolly.
Boxes are now being opened, but no matter how fast or efficient staff are, the PR-STV system is a slow one by design - the perils of democracy.
But, while it'll be much later in the day before we have an official count, tallies will give us a broadly reliable indication as to what way the political winds are blowing much earlier in the day.
Of course, this will ultimately a transfers game and inevitably that means a few shocks and surprises along the way.
Some say there's only two or three candidates with a credible chance of taking the seat - others caution there's more than one dark horse in this race.
It could be Sunday before the victor is announced - and until then, from tallies, analysis, and counts, to photos, interviews and speculation, we'll have it all here live as it happens.
We'll also keep you up to date on what's happening in the Dublin Central by-election, which actually has a unique local twist this year given Cork man John O' Leary is standing in both Galway West and Dublin Central.
And for now, as things get underway at the count centre at the Galway Lawn Tennis Club, here's a reminder of the horses in this race.
Some of them will fall at the very first hurdle - but while there'll always be favorites, the sheer quantity of moving parts in this one makes it impossible to predict a winner with great confidence.
